The EUR/USD pair is staging a comeback, but don’t celebrate just yet—buyers still have a lot to prove. Here’s the kicker: while the recent bounce looks promising, it’s far from a game-changer. Let’s break it down.
After a steep decline, the EUR/USD extended its losses, pulling further away from the critical 100-day and 200-day moving averages at 1.1694 and 1.1664, respectively. This rejection of key long-term support levels only strengthened the bearish sentiment, setting the stage for a potential deeper drop. And that’s exactly what happened—sellers pushed the pair below the 2026 low of 1.1576, triggering a wave of additional selling pressure. The downward spiral didn’t pause until hitting 1.1531, a fresh cycle low, confirming that bears remain firmly in the driver’s seat.
But here’s where it gets interesting: the subsequent bounce has lifted the pair back above the 1.1576 level, giving buyers a small but significant foothold. And this is the part most people miss: while this reclaim might spark optimism, the recovery is still corrective in nature. Buyers need to do more than just claw back lost ground—they need to prove they can hold their own against sellers.
To shift the bias toward a more neutral stance, buyers must overcome additional resistance levels, including 1.1619 and the falling 200-bar moving average on the 5-minute chart. A decisive break above these levels would signal that buyers are regaining control, rather than merely benefiting from short-covering. But here’s the controversial part: even if they succeed, will it be enough to reverse the broader bearish trend? Or is this just a temporary reprieve before the next leg down?
In the video above, I dive into these key technical levels, explain why they matter, and outline the steps buyers need to take to reclaim more meaningful control. The question is: can they pull it off, or are sellers still calling the shots? What’s your take? Let me know in the comments—I’d love to hear your thoughts!
